Prediction Markets

Prediction Markets: Explore on-chain bets, governance, and DeFi risk as platforms, liquidity, and policy shape outcome markets.

Twin metallic AI consoles loom over a glowing prediction dashboard, with a rocket silhouette behind them in a dark grayscale data-grid scene.
AI·Prediction Markets

Gemini Launches AI Prediction Markets Feed

Gemini launched Command Center, an AI-powered prediction markets feed offering real-time summaries, sentiment analysis, and personalized signals.

General News
RORowan K. DelgadoJun 3 04:31
A grayscale cinematic trading-floor courtroom shows a restrained mechanical octopus and a stern guardian enforcing rules over prediction market objects.
Market News·Regulation

Polymarket Tightens Rules on Insider Trading

Polymarket tightened market integrity rules to curb insider trading and manipulation as prediction markets grow, facing more scrutiny and regulation.

General News
CACallum HargreavesApr 27 00:01
A futuristic market machine is upgraded while an older one shuts down, with erased orders and blockchain vault elements in a dark grayscale scene.
Market News·Stablecoins

Polymarket V2 Goes Live on April 22

Polymarket launches V2 on April 22, replacing core contracts and collateral with pUSD, wiping open orders, and requiring users to migrate.

USPM
DEDerek HollowayApr 26 17:31
Two lowered war helmets flank a balanced scale as a shadowy bull emerges behind them in a dark grayscale financial-geopolitical scene.
Market News·Macro & Risk Sentiment

Polymarket Resolves Israel Hezbollah Ceasefire

Polymarket resolved three Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire markets to Yes on April 16, settling $5.3M+ in bets and signaling lower near-term Middle East risk.

BT
DEDerek HollowayApr 25 03:01
Mike Selig sits under harsh light at a hearing table while shadowy lawmakers press in around him in a dark grayscale scene.
Regulation·Derivatives

CFTC Chair Selig Faces Bipartisan Fire

CFTC Chair Mike Selig faces bipartisan backlash as lawmakers question the agency's stance on prediction markets and Hyperliquid-style crypto perps.

BTETSOHY
RORowan K. DelgadoApr 24 15:32
A mechanical raven trading bot dominates a dark market desk as ghostly retail hands and betting symbols fade into a black grid background.
Prediction Markets·Investing

Polymarket No Bot Keeps Winning

A Polymarket bot keeps profiting by buying "No" on overhyped event contracts, exploiting retail excitement, fuzzy resolutions, and low base-rate outcomes.

General News
RARavi DeshmukhApr 22 09:31
A dark crypto wallet opens into a casino-like prediction market scene beneath a looming exchange fortress and faint data-grid background.
CeFi·Prediction Markets

Binance Adds Predict.fun to Its App

Binance added Predict.fun to Binance Wallet on Thursday, giving users in supported regions seamless access to on-chain prediction markets.

BN
MAMara VillaseñorApr 9 15:02
A dark grayscale scene shows a prediction-market machine, two de-escalating chess kings, and a cautious bull advancing in a tense financial atmosphere.
Market News·Macro & Risk Sentiment

Polymarket Resolves US Iran Ceasefire Bet Yes

Polymarket resolved its US-Iran ceasefire bet YES on April 8, ending a key risk proxy after $787K in volume and reinforcing crypto's de-escalation rally.

BT
TETessa LarkinApr 8 03:31
A sharp fox in a dark newsroom beside a futuristic market display, evoking prediction data entering mainstream media.
Market News·Prediction Markets

Fox Partners With Kalshi on Prediction Data

Fox Corp. will add Kalshi's sponsored prediction-market "crowd odds" across its news platforms, pushing event contracts further into mainstream media.

General News
CACallum HargreavesApr 7 17:21
A grayscale futuristic market machine and courthouse mechanism stand over cut puppet strings and restrained snake-like manipulation symbols.
Regulation·DeFi

Polymarket Tightens Market Integrity Rules

Polymarket tightened market integrity rules across DeFi and its CFTC-regulated exchange, restricting insider trading and manipulation.

General News
RORowan K. DelgadoApr 7 12:55
A grayscale war-room market scene with a tilted scale, war helmet, wilted peace symbols, anxious bull, and ominous oil shadows.
Market News·Macro & Risk Sentiment

Polymarket Gives Trump Iran Deadline 3% Odds

Polymarket traders give just 3% odds of a US-Iran ceasefire by today, signaling low hopes for Trump's deadline and adding macro pressure on Bitcoin.

BT
DEDerek HollowayApr 7 02:33
Two rival military king figures ease back across a dark trading floor as a dove descends over a glowing prediction-market crystal ball.
Market News·Macro & Risk Sentiment

Polymarket Iran Ceasefire Odds Hit 82%

Polymarket's odds of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire by May 15 surged to 82% on April 6, signaling traders now expect de-escalation.

BT
RORowan K. DelgadoApr 6 23:31
A metallic market machine breaks past a courthouse barrier, surrounded by legal scales and moody grayscale lighting.
Regulation·Derivatives

Kalshi Wins Third Circuit Prediction Market Case

Kalshi won a major Third Circuit case, with judges ruling New Jersey cannot restrict its CFTC-regulated prediction market contracts.

General News
DEDerek HollowayApr 6 23:03
Trump caricature at a dark war-room table, pointing over a narrow sea passage with shadowy ships and market signals behind him.
Macro & Risk Sentiment·Prediction Markets

Polymarket Iran Invasion Odds Surge on Trump Threat

Polymarket odds of U.S. forces entering Iran jumped to 63% after Trump threatened strikes if Tehran moved to block the Strait of Hormuz.

General News
TETessa LarkinApr 6 05:33
Three political caricature figures confront a shuttered prediction market setup amid legal symbols, military cues, and a dark data-grid backdrop.
Regulation·Prediction Markets

Polymarket Pulls Death Market After Backlash

Polymarket removed a market on a missing U.S. service member after backlash, highlighting ethical limits and failures in prediction market safeguards.

General News
TETessa LarkinApr 5 05:34
A monochrome mechanical betting beast looms over a war map table, surrounded by market tokens, hourglasses, and ominous strike imagery.
Macro & Risk Sentiment·Prediction Markets

Polymarket Iran Bets Surge Before Trump Deadline

Polymarket war-bet volumes topped $3.7M before Trump's April 6 Iran deadline, with traders piling into strike and retaliation markets across 16 countries.

General News
MAMara VillaseñorApr 5 00:35
Three senator and exchange executive caricatures stand over a betting-trading table with gavels, scales, and a dark market backdrop.
Regulation·Prediction Markets

Senate Bill Targets Sports Betting Prediction Markets

Bipartisan senators plan a bill to ban sports betting and casino-style prediction market contracts, tightening rules on CFTC-regulated venues.

General News
MAMara VillaseñorApr 3 20:01
Dan Patrick and David Miller stand sternly in a dark regulatory scene with legal symbols, betting props, and a faint data grid.
Regulation·Prediction Markets

Texas Targets Crypto Betting Loopholes

Texas is probing prediction markets and crypto rails that may bypass state gambling bans, targeting CFTC-framed event contracts tied to sports.

BTST
RORowan K. DelgadoApr 1 19:01
A powerful bull stops short of a peak as a gavel seals a failed bitcoin prediction in a dark grayscale market scene.
Market News·Bitcoin

Bitcoin ATH Bet Resolves No on Polymarket

Polymarket resolved its $3.9M Bitcoin ATH-by-March 31 market to No after BTC failed to set a new record, ending a closely watched Q1 bullish bet.

BT
RORowan K. DelgadoApr 1 10:31
A giant bearish creature presses down on a Bitcoin symbol as prediction-market machines loom in a dark grayscale trading scene.
Market News·Bitcoin

Polymarket Favors Bitcoin Drop Below $45K

Polymarket bettors now see a 52% chance Bitcoin falls below $45K in 2026, while odds of a $100K rally this year remain far lower.

BTDO
RARavi DeshmukhMar 31 10:01
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About Prediction Markets

Prediction Markets covers on-chain prediction networks where liquidity, outcomes, and governance intersect within DeFi. In this category you will find reporting on how markets are designed, how incentives and tokenomics guide participation, and how data reliability and security concerns affect trust. The coverage also tracks regulatory developments, enforcement actions, and the broader implications for developers, traders, and communities.