Russian-Pakistani Crypto Alliance Unsettles India: A BRICS Dilemma

• Unsettled Ties as Russia Supports Pakistan's Entry into BRICS, Rankling India
• Pakistan's Attempt to Join BRICS
• Russia's Oil Deal with Pakistan
• Potential Support From Russia and China for Pakistan's Entry into BRICS
• Potential Strife within BRICS

Unsettled Ties as Russia Supports Pakistan's Entry into BRICS, Rankling India

Recent moves by BRICS member Russia to strengthen its relations with Pakistan have caused concern for fellow member India. The two South Asian nations, India and Pakistan, have had strained relations for several decades, typically refraining from engaging in business interactions unless absolutely necessary. Yet, this situation has been complicated further as Pakistan now formally seeks to join BRICS, with Russia's backing.

Pakistan's Attempt to Join BRICS

Pakistan's application to join BRICS is viewed as unfavorable by the Indian government, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, as it does not wish to share the limelight with Pakistan. Fueling the tension, Russia's active support for Pakistan extends beyond diplomatic encouragement. The country recently commenced direct flights to and from Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan. This connection was not the end, as relations between Russia and Pakistan deepened when the latter purchased oil from Moscow in June 2023.

Russia's Oil Deal with Pakistan

The oil deal saw Russia selling 45,000 tonnes of crude oil to Pakistan, a transaction that took place despite the United States imposing sanctions. To evade these sanctions, Pakistan opted to pay the Chinese Yuan for oil settlement with Russia, diverging from the US dollar. This outcome has only served to solidify ties between Russia and Pakistan, an occurrence that has raised the ire of fellow BRICS nation India.

Potential Support From Russia and China for Pakistan's Entry into BRICS

Although India may vehemently oppose Pakistan's introduction to BRICS due to the long-standing tension between them, other BRICS members, such as Russia and China, might champion Pakistan's inclusion and offer them a spot in the alliance. The decision could be made in the next selection process set for 2024, placing Pakistan as a possible addition to the alliance.

Potential Strife within BRICS

Should Pakistan's receipt of an invitation to join BRICS become a reality, disagreement among members could arise. India, in particular, could express its dissatisfaction with the decision. Such discord could potentially fragment BRICS before it fully takes flight to challenge the Western world and the US dollar. An alliance riddled with internal strife would be unlikely to significantly impact the status of the US dollar as much of its energy would be absorbed in managing internal disputes.

Edited by Jonathan Stoker