Polymarket Predicts 89% Probability of SEC's BTC ETF Approval by Jan 15

• Polymarket Traders Bet on Imminent Approval of Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S.
• Market Anticipation for U.S.-Based Spot ETF
• Speculation on SEC Approval
• Shares Bought as Safeguard Against Bullish Exposure

Polymarket Traders Bet on Imminent Approval of Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S.

Participants on Polymarket, a decentralized prediction platform, are projecting a high likelihood of approval for one or more Bitcoin$42,260 -0.64% Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) in the United States within the next two weeks. As of the current update, the Yes side of the Bitcoin ETF approved by Jan 15 contract was trading at 89 cents. This signifies an 89% probability of this long-awaited event happening by mid-January, a remarkable rise from approximately 50% just a month prior.

Market Anticipation for U.S.-Based Spot ETF

The market has been abuzz since early October with impending launch rumors of a U.S.-based spot ETF. This anticipation has contributed to bitcoin's price increasing over 55%, surpassing the $45,000 mark. The expectation is that the introduction of ETFs will attract billions of dollars in investor funds to the bitcoin market. Polymarket has earned a top-spot in forecast markets since its introduction in 2020, enabling investors to wager on various occurrences.

Speculation on SEC Approval

As per the current scenario, traders are estimating an 89% probability that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will give the nod to one or more spot ETFs by January 15th. To date, $437,394 has been wagered on an ETF-dedicated prediction contract that will resolve to Yes if any ETF gets the green signal by the aforementioned date. According to reliable sources, the SEC might inform the 14 spot ETF applicants as early as Tuesday or Wednesday that they are cleared to launch ETFs in the upcoming weeks.

Shares Bought as Safeguard Against Bullish Exposure

Some traders have chosen to buy shares on the No side of the contract as a precautionary measure against bullish exposure in the spot/futures market. There's a possibility that Bitcoin's price may take a hit if the SEC decides to postpone the anticipated ETF launch. One trader quoted in the comment section of the prediction contract stated, I'm buying No as an insurance against my Long positions. If the ETF will not be approved, the market will dump hard, but I will still make profits.

Edited by Jonathan Stoker