Polymarket Predicts 55% Possibility of Trump's Second Presidency

• Polymarket Traders Predict Potential Trump Reinstatement in Upcoming Presidential Election
• Other Potential Presidential Candidates
• Polymarket as a Platform for Binary Events Betting
• Traditional Sports Betting Books Forecasts

Polymarket Traders Predict Potential Trump Reinstatement in Upcoming Presidential Election

The U.S. presidential election, set to take place ten months from now, has sparked speculation among traders involved with Polymarket, a decentralized prediction platform. Confidence appears high for the potential return of former President Donald Trump to power.

Presently, the 'Yes' shares in the Trump prediction market, associated with the Presidential Election Winner 2024 contract, are trading at 55 cents. This corresponds to a 55% likelihood of Trump securing the election. The former president has already been victorious in the initial two Republican Party primaries, a process designed to select the most appropriate candidate to represent their respective parties.

Other Potential Presidential Candidates

President Joe Biden is given a 38% chance of retaining his position by the traders. Meanwhile, Republican Nikki Haley, of Indian-American descent, is seen as having a minimal 1% chance of winning the election. The possibility of Michelle Obama entering the race is also being considered by traders, who are assigning a 2% probability to the former U.S. First Lady outperforming the competition, amidst circulating rumors of her potential candidacy.

Polymarket as a Platform for Binary Events Betting

Since making its initial appearance in 2020, Polymarket has emerged as a popular choice for traders keen to place bets on binary events. Its 'Presidential Election Winner 2024' betting contract has attracted significant interest. Traders have wagered over $22 million on this contract, with $3.4 million currently held in the Trump-centric prediction market.

This contract is set to terminate on November 5th. The Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC will serve as resolution sources for the market.

Traditional Sports Betting Books Forecasts

In addition to the Polymarket predictions, traditional sports betting books also highlight Trump and Biden as probable contenders for the 2024 Presidential election. Last week, Biden was given +156 election odds to reclaim his presidential title, marginally outpacing Trump's 150+ odds.

Edited by Jonathan Stoker