Bitcoin ETF Approval: Bloomberg Prediction Surges to 90%, Drops on Polymarket

• Bitcoin ETF Approval Odds in U.S. Rise Above 90%, Say Analysts
• SEC's Possible Rejection of Proposals
• Crypto Market Participants' Perspective
• Expectations for Key SEC Decisions
• Spot Bitcoin ETF Applicants
• Approval of Filings

Bitcoin ETF Approval Odds in U.S. Rise Above 90%, Say Analysts

The chances of a spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) receiving approval in the U.S. have surged beyond 90%, according to two prominent Bloomberg analysts. However, on the Polymarket betting platform, crypto market participants have demonstrated a more pessimistic view, reducing the odds to 85%.

SEC's Possible Rejection of Proposals

Eric Balchunas, a Bloomberg ETF analyst, addressed the issue of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) possibly rejecting proposals amid numerous updated filings from last Friday. Balchunas suggested in a Saturday post that the likelihood of rejection is around 5%. However, he noted that it's essential to maintain some openness to unexpected outcomes. In his previous prediction in November, he estimated the odds at 90%. He argued that the updated forms at the time signaled that providers were heading in the correct direction.

Crypto Market Participants' Perspective

On the other hand, crypto market participants appear to hold a less optimistic view, with doubts about approval being granted before January 15th. This sentiment is reflected in betting patterns on Polymarket, where participants have collectively bet approximately $500,000 on the delay or denial of approval, thereby reducing the odds from the previous week's 90%.

Expectations for Key SEC Decisions

Despite these doubts, a significant portion of the crypto market continues to anticipate that the SEC's key decisions this week will result in the first spot bitcoin ETFs being made available to professional investors in the U.S. An officially regulated offering is projected to generate billions of dollars in bitcoin demand, making it one of the most closely watched triggers in the history of the asset.

Spot Bitcoin ETF Applicants

More than a dozen hopeful applicants are aiming to initiate the first spot bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. Amended 19b-4 filings on behalf of BlackRock, Grayscale, Fidelity, and other issuers joined the last month's modified S-1 filings in addressing feedback from the SEC last Friday.

Approval of Filings

Both the 19b-4 filings and the S-1 filings require approval before the ETFs can be launched.

Edited by Jonathan Stoker