Binance, OKX Behind Bitcoin's 'Sell The Fact' Pullback: Kaiko Reveals

• Bitcoin experiences selling pressure following the introduction of spot ETFs in the US
• Drop in Bitcoin prices
• Sell-the-fact pullback led by Binance traders
• Capital outflow on Binance and other exchanges
• ETF trading and the impact on Bitcoin's CVD
• Performance of other exchanges
• Possible further slide in Bitcoin prices

Bitcoin experiences selling pressure following the introduction of spot ETFs in the US

Bitcoin$42,260 -0.64% (BTC) has experienced a downward trend ever since the onset of spot exchange-traded funds (ETF) began trading in the US. Data from Paris-based Kaiko indicates that the selling pressure has been particularly prevalent on Binance, OKX, and Upbit, renowned crypto exchanges known for their high trading volumes.

Drop in Bitcoin prices

The premier cryptocurrency by market value, Bitcoin, was exchanging hands at $42,700 at the time of writing, indicating a 12% decline from its peak of $48,975 achieved on Thursday. The drop in price appears to originate from traders cashing in on long (buy) positions set up in anticipation of the ETFs' debut.

Sell-the-fact pullback led by Binance traders

An indicator known as the cumulative volume delta (CVD) signals that traders from Binance spearheaded the sell-the-fact pullback in Bitcoin. The CVD monitors the net difference between buying and selling volumes over time, providing a total view of net bullish/bearish pressures in the market. Positive values suggest an excess of purchase volume, while negative values imply the opposite.

Capital outflow on Binance and other exchanges

The spot market CVD on Binance turned positive last Thursday, but has been on the decline since, signifying a capital outflow nearly equivalent to 5,000 BTC, as per Kaiko's data. Upbit from South Korea witnessed the second-largest net capital outflow, followed by Itbit and OKX.

ETF trading and the impact on Bitcoin's CVD

Trading of the ETFs began last Thursday, leading to a notable surge in cumulative volume delta (CVD) across all major exchanges. Binance saw a net market purchase of nearly 3k BTC in the hour encompassing the market open in the US. However, as some had anticipated, sell the news took charge, and Binance's CVD quickly slid into the negative, similar to OKX's trend.

Performance of other exchanges

Other exchanges such as Itbit, which caters to institutional investors but with lower trade volumes, and Upbit, exhibited consistent selling with few retraces. Meanwhile, the CVD on Coinbase, the primary custody partner for most ETFs, and Bitstamp remained positive, suggesting a net capital inflow despite the price weakness.

Possible further slide in Bitcoin prices

Some analysts predict that Bitcoin prices could potentially drop to $40,000 or lower before the pullback loses momentum. The initial performance of the ETFs has been lacklustre compared to Bloomberg analysts' anticipation of $4 billion in inflows on the first day alone, fuelling the possibility of a more pronounced price dip.

Edited by Jonathan Stoker