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Shiba Inu$0.00000613 is doing that thing memecoins do when the vibes go quiet: not crashing dramatically, not pumping heroically, just... hovering. As of this week, SHIB is essentially flat versus seven days ago (down roughly 0.5%), but on-chain data is flashing a colder message: this bear trend could realistically drag on for another seven months, potentially into September 2026, if prior cycle patterns rhyme. [1]
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Why "flat" is not the same as "fine"

CT (Crypto Twitter) tends to treat sideways price action as a breather before the next send. The problem is that SHIB's current "nothing burger" price behavior is happening while a large majority of holders are still underwater, which historically keeps rallies short and sell-heavy. [2]
This stagnation is also landing during a broader market lull where Bitcoin$62,452.59's lack of near-term momentum has leaked into higher-beta corners like memecoins. Even among the top meme assets, the leaderboard looks sleepy: SHIB and Pepe$0.00000386 barely moved week over week, while Dogecoin$0.10364 slipped and newer meme names managed modest gains. The sector is rotating, but it is not broadly trending.
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Two on-chain metrics putting SHIB bulls on defense

1) Percent supply in profit is near bear-market floor levels

Glassnode's percent supply in profit measures how much of the circulating supply sits at a profit based on each coin's last on-chain movement price. For SHIB, that number recently hovered around 3.07%, which is bleak by any standard. [3]

A key point: previous lows were already rare. Late 2023 printed around 3.93% at the time, and February 2026 dipped to roughly 2.86%, meaning current conditions are not just "bad," they are structurally similar to capitulation-style phases.

Why it matters: when only about 3% of supply is in profit, most holders are staring at red. That tends to produce two behaviors that can extend bearish regimes:

  • Rally selling: any bounce becomes an exit ramp for underwater wallets trying to reduce pain.
  • Muted spot demand: new buyers struggle to overpower the constant overhead supply.

2) MVRV deviation suggests the "cheap" zone can last months, not weeks

The other red flag is the MVRV ratio (Market Value to Realized Value), a valuation signal that compares current market cap to the on-chain realized cap (the aggregate cost basis). Traders often look at how far MVRV deviates from its long-term mean to gauge extremes.
During the 2022 bear market, SHIB's MVRV sat roughly 0.5 to 1 standard deviation below its mean for an extended stretch, lasting from May 2022 through January 2023. That matters because the current setup shows a similarly depressed profile.

If SHIB repeats that kind of time-based grind, the implication is uncomfortable but clear: this could be a multi-month bear phase that persists into September 2026, even if short-term bounces show up along the way.

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"But what about a catalyst?" The ETF narrative may not be enough

SHIB has no shortage of headlines that sound like potential catalysts. One example floating around the market is the idea that future product wrappers, such as a proposed multi-asset ETF concept from firms like T. Rowe Price, could eventually broaden exposure to more volatile assets, potentially including memecoins.

That is a big "if," and even if the narrative gains traction, the on-chain reality suggests SHIB is still in a regime where sentiment and positioning are bearish enough to overpower news flow. In plain terms: a headline can spark a spike, but a spike is not the same as a trend reversal when most holders are still trapped. [4]

What traders are watching: bounces as sell zones, not breakouts

Higher-timeframe structure remains tilted bearish, which changes how many participants treat green candles. Instead of chasing upside, a common approach in this kind of market is to view a bounce back toward prior swing highs as a liquidity event, meaning an opportunity for sellers to unload into strength.

That mentality often becomes self-fulfilling: rallies fail because the market is using them to de-risk.

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Practical takeaway: what to watch next

SHIB holders and traders should treat the "7 more months" thesis as a regime warning, not a guaranteed calendar prediction. The cleanest tells to monitor are:

  • Percent supply in profit: sustained improvement would signal less trapped supply and healthier sentiment.
  • MVRV deviation: a move back toward the mean would suggest the extreme undervaluation phase is fading.
  • Rally behavior: if pumps keep getting sold quickly, the bear trend is still in control.
  • Catalyst quality: real, measurable demand shocks matter more than speculative product chatter.

Risk is straightforward: sideways-to-down can last longer than most bags can stay patient. The catalyst to invalidate the bear case is also straightforward: SHIB needs on-chain profitability and valuation metrics to recover, not just a one-week pump that looks good on a chart and dies in the replies.

Tags

#Glassnode#on-chain metrics#Shiba Inu#Memecoins#SHIB#Bear trend#Supply in profit#Market lull#Bitcoin influence#Cycle analysis