Crypto may finally be approaching one of its favorite rituals: getting declared "near the bottom" by Wall Street after most of the damage is already done. This time, the call came from Goldman Sachs, which told clients on March 26 that the recent selloff has pushed digital asset markets close to the average historical peak-to-trough decline, making parts of the sector look investable again. [1]
The bank's argument was simple and, for once, mostly numerical. Goldman analyst James Yaro wrote that the current cycle has reached roughly 95% of the typical historical price drawdown and 90% of the usual volume decline. That does not guarantee a bottom, obviously, but it does suggest the worst of the reset may already be priced in if this cycle follows prior patterns. [2]
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What Goldman is actually buying into
Goldman was not making a broad "buy crypto" call. Its note focused on select crypto-linked equities, especially companies with digitalasset exposure but business models that are not entirely dependent on token prices going vertical. The names highlighted were Coinbase (COIN), Robinhood (HOOD), and Figure Technologies (FIGR). [3]
That distinction matters. Goldman's view was that valuations have become more compelling, particularly in firms that are less directly tied to crypto spot prices. In other words, if Bitcoin$62,306.83 and the wider market stabilize rather than rip higher immediately, some listed companies could still outperform because their stocks have already been heavily repriced.
Goldman cut its price targets anyway. Coinbase's target was lowered from $270 to $235, while Robinhood's was reduced from $102 to $91. Even after those cuts, the bank still sees sizeable upside from recent trading levels. Based on the source figures, the revised Coinbase target implied more than 35% upside from about $173, and Robinhood's target suggested roughly 30% upside from around $70.35. [1]
Why the setup looks washed out
Both COIN and HOOD were down about 55% from their October 2025 highs, a drawdown that lines up with the broader crypto reset. That is the basic case for the trade: a lot of bad news has already been absorbed, sentiment is weak, and the sector is now cheap enough that stabilization alone could help.
Broader market data supports the idea that this has been a meaningful flush. The source material puts total crypto market capitalization at roughly $2.41 trillion, with Bitcoin$62,306.83dominance at 56.26%. That dominance figure is notable because it usually rises when investors rotate out of more speculative tokens and into the most liquid asset in the sector. Translation: this has looked more like risk reduction than fresh risk appetite. [4]
Bitcoin is the anchor, whether stocks like it or not
The bottom call also leans on bitcoin's long-term chart. Bitcoin$62,306.83 recently slipped toward $60,000, and the 200-week moving average, a widely watched cycle support level, sat near $59,000. Previous bear market lows have formed around that area, which is why analysts keep circling it. Technical support is not magic, but it is one of the few levels crypto traders actually pretend to respect during panic. [5]
Goldman is not alone here. Fidelity, Bitwise, and other market watchers have made similar arguments in recent weeks, pointing to historical drawdown patterns and long-term support bands as evidence that the market may be close to exhaustion on the downside.
The catch: bottoming is not the same as recovering
This is the part that usually gets buried under the "attractive entry point" language. Even if the market is near a bottom, the rebound may be slow and uneven.
Research firm Ecoinometrics offered a useful reality check: the deeper bitcoin falls, the longer it tends to take to recover. Its framework suggests that for every 10% decline, recovery time stretches by roughly 80 days. At the current drawdown, that implies something like 300 days, or about 10 months, for bitcoin to fully regain prior levels.
That warning matters for Goldman's stock picks too. Coinbase and Robinhood can bounce before bitcoin fully recovers, but they are still sentiment trades to a large extent. If crypto stays range-bound for months, investors may need to live through a long stretch where "cheap" keeps looking cheap.
What to watch next
Three signals matter from here.
First, bitcoin's behavior around the $59,000 to $60,000 area. If that zone holds, the "cycle low" thesis gets more credible. If it breaks decisively, Wall Street's timing will look a bit early, as everyone definitely predicted.
Second, trading volumes and retail activity at firms like Coinbase and Robinhood. Goldman's thesis depends partly on these businesses proving they can monetize engagement even without a full crypto mania.
Third, how long the recovery takes, not just whether prices bounce for a week. A durable bottom usually comes with improving participation and less forced selling, not just one oversold rally that gets posted 400 times on X.
Goldman's call is best read as a selective value argument, not a clean all-clear for crypto. The selling may be largely done. The easy upside, if it comes, may not be.
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