Predicting Crypto Regulations in 2024: Elections, SEC, DOJ Cases

• Looking Ahead: Crypto Regulations in 2024
• Anticipated Trends in 2024
• Key Areas of Interest
• Court Cases
• Elections
• Agencies and Legislation
• The Broader Market
• Reflecting on Past Predictions
• 2024: Rules in Action
• Regulatory Developments in other Countries
• Continued Regulatory Activity in the UK
• The US: A Brighter Outlook?
• In Conclusion

Looking Ahead: Crypto Regulations in 2024

As we close out 2023, our global policy team provides an overview of what to anticipate in the crypto regulation landscape for the coming year. As always, the State of Crypto newsletter keeps a keen eye on developments at the crossroads of cryptocurrency and government.

Anticipated Trends in 2024

In keeping with our tradition, we turn our sights to the pivotal events and trends on the horizon for 2024. With the significant developments of the past year, including the conviction of Sam Bankman-Fried and the guilty plea from Changpeng Zhao, the potential approval of a spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund and a general market uptick, there's plenty to be optimistic about for the cryptocurrency industry. However, we can expect lawmakers and regulators to keep a close eye on crypto issues.

Key Areas of Interest

Court Cases

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) have been active this year, pursuing lawsuits against Coinbase, Kraken, Binance and others. As these cases progress, we will gain insights into how courts view the arguments being made. It also remains to be seen how national security and criminal cases, such as those involving Avi Eisenberg, Roman Storm, Alex Mashinsky, Changpeng Zhao, and Samuel Bankman-Fried, will shape the legal landscape of the crypto industry.

Elections

Key elections in the U.S., European Union, India, Indonesia, and possibly the UK, will have significant implications for the cryptocurrency sector. While explicit positions on cryptocurrency issues may not be a focal point, the appointed heads of departments or ministries and the laws they endorse will undoubtedly impact the crypto sector.

Agencies and Legislation

Despite no major crypto legislation advancing out of Congress this year, the progress made by stablecoin and market structure bills indicates that these discussions will continue in 2024. The activity of federal regulators will be another key factor.

The Broader Market

The rising market prices, coupled with increasing excitement, cannot be overlooked. Whether these trends signify a more resilient platform or market structure, and whether safeguards are in place to prevent significant financial loss, will influence how global regulators view the industry.

Reflecting on Past Predictions

Looking back on our 2023 predictions, the SEC lawsuits and legislative advances held up quite well. However, it may still be too early to discern the regulatory reaction to the collapse of certain companies.

2024: Rules in Action

2024 will mark the year when recently established crypto regulations start taking effect. Most notably, the EU's Markets in Crypto Assets regulation, set to take effect next December. With these regulations, the crypto sector will face new challenges and opportunities.

Regulatory Developments in other Countries

Next year, we can also anticipate more legislation from jurisdictions including Turkey and South Korea. In India, the world's largest democracy, we can expect the continuation of existing crypto policies if current Prime Minister Narendra Modi returns for a third term. However, there is hope for more supportive measures for the Web3 and blockchain industry.

Continued Regulatory Activity in the UK

In the UK, the government has passed legislation that supports its aspirations to be a crypto hub. However, the strict approach taken by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) may limit the growth of the crypto industry in the country.

The US: A Brighter Outlook?

In the US, the approval of spot bitcoin ETFs by the SEC could stimulate institutional investment in digital assets and spark public interest in virtual tokens. On the legislative front, digital asset regulation may reach new heights in the House of Representatives.

In Conclusion

As 2024 approaches, the cryptocurrency industry is gearing up for another pivotal year. With anticipated regulatory changes, court decisions, and legislative developments, the stage is set for a dynamic year in the world of crypto regulations.

Edited by Jonathan Stoker