83% Odds for Bitcoin ETF Approval: Crypto's Response to Deniers

• Bitcoin Suffers a Setback Amid ETF Approval Speculation
• Market Expectations for ETF Approval
• Bitcoin ETF Approval Bets Gain Momentum
• Billions at Stake on ETF Decision

Bitcoin Suffers a Setback Amid ETF Approval Speculation

On Wednesday, Bitcoin$42,260 -0.64% (BTC) experienced a 7% drop fueled by predictions surrounding the anticipated U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF). This slump was influenced by a substantial surge in futures steeply leveraged against the premier cryptocurrency.

Market Expectations for ETF Approval

Despite the market turbulence, expert analysts are divided over the potential repercussions of the ETF approval, anticipated to occur by January 15. However, the majority foresee a favorable outcome from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). This optimistic sentiment is echoed within the crypto community at large, as evidenced by the bets placed on the predictive platform Polymarket.

A Polymarket participant, who had made a considerable investment in 2,800 yes bets, likened ETF deniers to crypto's flat earthers. Polymarket enables its users to wager on a wide array of subjects, from sports and politics to pop culture. The current probability of an event occurring is represented by prices ranging from $0 to 99 cents, which culminate in $1 when any bet is concluded.

Bitcoin ETF Approval Bets Gain Momentum

One particularly notable market is the Bitcoin ETF approved by Jan 15? wager, which has drawn nearly $1 million from hundreds of users. The resolution of this market hinges on whether any spot Bitcoin ETF gains SEC validation by January 15, 2024, at 11:59:59 PM ET. Failing this, the market will be settled as 'No'. The primary source for this market's resolution is SEC information, though consensus from credible reports may also be considered.

Side bets on Bitcoin ETF approval are surging on Polymarket. Over 83% of the wagers lean in favor, a statistic that aligns with the 90% probability of approval predicted by ETF analysts. Comments from Polymarket users indicate that even those wagering against the decision anticipate eventual ETF approval, though not necessarily by the bet's deadline.

Billions at Stake on ETF Decision

Billions in directional bitcoin trades are contingent on the ETF decision, underscoring its significance as one of the most impactful in recent years. Recent data reveals that funding rates for bullish bets on bitcoin hit an all-time high earlier this week. This suggests an intense desire for exposure to the asset, irrespective of associated costs.

Edited by Jonathan Stoker